What’s Wrong With the Year’s Most Talked-About Event? Experts Rip Historic UFC Freedom 250 Card

Hello everyone, friends! You are watching the weekly discussion on the mma-tv.com portal. My name is Julia Mirei, and today we will discuss probably one of the main events of this year. On the night of June 14th to 15th, for the first time in UFC history, a tournament will be held on the White House lawn in Washington—UFC Freedom 250. It will be dedicated to the celebration of the 250th anniversary of US independence. The headliners will be Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje. In the co-main event, Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane will face off. We will discuss this event with sports journalist and commentator Yan Baranchuk, as well as MMA Series lightweight fighter Andrey Vasilenko. Hello, men!

Hello and a good day to you!

This event actually has two distinct components: a significant political aspect and a major sporting dimension. To begin our analysis, let us first take a closer look at the political one. In my personal opinion, the Ultimate Fighting Championship is an organization where this event turns into a small, well, not exactly small, but a very large and pervasive product placement. First of all, the administration, because the true face of this tournament, in reality, will not be Ilia Topuria or Justin Gaethje, but rather Donald Trump. American values, well, obviously, will be highlighted throughout the broadcast, considering that between the scheduled fights, the stories of American heroes will be shared with the audience. Furthermore, there was a significant discussion regarding the possibility of Islam Makhachev competing in the main event of the evening. But of course, it would be strange to imagine, for example, a Spanish Georgian and an American fighting in the main event at the Kremlin, if such a tournament were to take place. And that is exactly the reason why I think Justin Gaethje found himself in this specific position today. So, this leads me to ask you this very important question. What are your thoughts on this? What were the primary factors and considerations when choosing this specific card? And is the tournament at the White House a historic sporting event or simply a case of highly expensive political advertising? So, Yan, let's start with you. What are your thoughts on this?

Well, I think first and foremost it's an advertisement for Donald Trump personally, because the tournament is being held on his birthday. And, in general, you know, it actually reminds me of how things were here in the 1990s, when there was an event sponsor, and he would sit, in this case in his White House residence, and watch as fights were organized in his honor, with people battling it out there. Well, if we go even further back, yes, this is probably a story that can be linked to Ancient Rome, right? An emperor watching gladiator fights, He watched the spectacle from his private box in the grand amphitheater, surrounded by his loyal legionnaires and politicians. So yes, of course, and quite naturally, there simply had to be an American fighter in the main event of the night. Sean Strickland was visibly upset that he wasn't invited to the event, and as he always does, he made a characteristic joke about it in his own unique style. He posted a photo with payot and said he wasn't invited because he made fun of the Israeli leadership, which he suggested actually runs the United States.

Yes, by the way, that was an incredibly relevant and striking example. I immediately remembered that famous 'Vote or Lose' ad with Yeltsin, and it really helped the whole picture become much clearer. Andrey, what do you think? What's your take on it?

Well, I probably look at this more from the professional sports perspective. I truly think this is a massive and significant event and a major, transformative step for popularizing our sport around the world. Because, well, as we understand it, MMA is not an Olympic sport, right, and it gained its popularity simply because it was so tough, provocative, you know, especially on the internet—like when the first MMA fights appeared, and there was Conor McGregor, for example, who really popularized MMA all over the world. I think that was a huge factor in making it popular. And in gaining recognition for this sport from the global community. Even though this sport is not an Olympic sport and is not currently included in the official Olympic Games, although perhaps in the near future—if such an event happens that a major tournament is held in the White House—I think we can soon say that our sport will finally become Olympic.

But let's get back to the card. So, what do you honestly think—in 2 decades from now, for example—will people look back and remember the card itself and the fights, or will they remember that the tournament was held in the White House?

If we take a closer look at the whole card, generally speaking... I don't think there's any real sense of intrigue or excitement in these fights. In reality, everything is clear there—there's no intrigue, there won't be any 'Thrilla in Manila' moments, like they usually try to create at big shows to build suspense. That's probably not going to happen here. I think everything has been set up in such a way so that there will be a very quick and decisive domination by one side. And honestly, the entire fight card is looking extremely questionable, at least that is how it appears in my personal opinion. I am honestly not really a big fan of how this card has been put together. I thought that for an event like this at the White House, they would gather literally all the UFC stars they have. But unfortunately, that did not actually happen. I think the matchmakers probably didn't put in quite as much effort as they should have here.

Yeah, honestly, a significant number of fans have the distinct impression that... It could have been much more polished. Of course, it's good. Two title fights, including one in the heavyweight division. But, for example, there's no Conor. Many people were expecting Conor to make his return on this card. That didn't happen. It will happen a bit later. I hope it does happen. Aside from that, I fully agree with the general opinion that this is more of a politically driven event. Of course, the absolute primary highlight here—and probably, if people remember it many years from now, it will be as a kind of show that distinctly stands out from all the other performances we have seen. Because if we were to completely remove the White House, it's just a fairly solid and highly-ranked numbered UFC event, but absolutely nothing more than that—there's no real wow factor. And here I certainly understand both Andrey and everyone else who, let's say, is a bit skeptical regarding the actual competitive sporting aspect of this whole situation.

If we are really fantasizing, I would love to see a clash between Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov. That is the one dream fight that never happened. It's what fans all over the world were waiting for. The fight fell through five times. Five times we didn't get to see it. I think I would definitely want to watch that. And on Red Square, no less. I truly believe that such an event would attract many new fans to the world of martial arts. And probably, it would spark another kind of intense rivalry like that, which also never actually happened—the complex negotiations were ongoing for a long time, but unfortunately, it didn't take place. Even now, I think I would still really want to see a fight between Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou. I understand that, most likely, from a technical or sporting perspective, it would have been quite a predictable and expected event. When Francis Ngannou became the UFC champion, a great many people were talking about the need to set up a fight with Jon Jones but... Again, for certain reasons, it simply never ended up happening. I would have been willing to come and watch an incredible event like that.

Let me approach this from a slightly different angle. Let's imagine that we can choose from the fighters who are currently at the top. I think it would be very cool if, for example, Islam Makhachev fought Ian Garry for the title in the main event, and in the co-main event, or vice versa, those two fights could easily be swapped around. A title fight is a must, for example, a rematch between Sasha Volkov and Sergey Pavlovich. Having two powerful Russian warriors like that on Red Square I think that would be absolutely epic.

I would have the same fighters, just mixed up a little differently. Of course, I would still put Makhachev and Topuria. It would be really cool to see how Islam, well, I think, would handle Ilia. And in the second fight, I would also like to see Volkov, but probably against Aspinall, so that Alexander could finally take the belt. That would be truly beautiful.

Perhaps just someday it will happen.

Yes, let's certainly hope so. Now, let's move on to the highly anticipated main fight, which will actually take place very soon. Which specific scenario seems the most likely to occur? Will Topuria end up completely dominating the octagon, or will Gaethje manage to drag out another grueling five-round war? Andrey, this is your weight class. I'd like to hear your opinion.

I believe the fight will reach its conclusion. Most likely, I think it will end with a knockout. In my personal opinion, I really believe Ilia will secure yet another impressive knockout victory. Honestly, when it comes to the fights, if we just sit down and look at how the most recent fights of both Gaethje and Ilia actually went, yeah... There is a remarkably significant and noticeable difference in their overall fighting styles. I really don't recall a specific moment when anyone has ever truly rocked Ilia Topuria, or when he was visibly wobbled, in a groggy state, and so on. This is quite unlike, for example, a fighter like Justin Gaethje. Justin has been hit hard, and Justin has been in a very groggy state many different times. He’s been hit cleanly, and honestly, he has been severely rocked on several occasions. And Ilia is the kind of guy who can land shots, and he will land them in this fight. So, even though he has a wrestling base, everyone says Ilia is a striker, but they’ve actually forgotten about his solid wrestling foundation. In this fight, I think he’ll also be throwing a lot of strikes, even though Justin is probably not even going to attempt to wrestle him. Most likely, it’s going to be a total stand-up brawl. I think that somewhere around... In the middle of the second round, I think Ilia will land his shot. Maybe even in the first round. I’m not making any predictions, but I think the fight will end by knockout in the first or second round—Ilia will find his range and land the shot. Just like in his previous fights, when Topuria moved up to lightweight, how he handled his opponents—simply pressuring them and landing his shots. He has very well-developed boxing skills. So, I think he’ll land his shot on Justin’s head.

Well, I agree, but it's hard to argue with the fact that Topuria is a serious favorite, and that's reflected in the betting odds as well. Most likely, he'll win before the final bell, but I'll be rooting for Justin Gaethje, as a representative of the old school, and he still has a chance. And let's not forget that out of the entire top tier—even recently, colleagues posted about this—across all UFC weight classes, among those currently ranked highly, he has been the underdog and won more often than anyone else. The most awkward, the most unpredictable underdog. That’s happened about seven or eight times in his career. And in Fiziev’s case, if I’m not mistaken, he was the underdog both times. In both the first and the second fight, and he won both bouts. That’s why Justin certainly stands a real fighting chance—he’s got an incredibly powerful and devastating knockout punch, and that’s not going anywhere. Over the long haul, I think he’s more likely to lose, but if, say, it turns into that very brawl, our favorite high-energy and chaotic slugfest, in the first or second round, when both fighters still have a lot of energy, then I think Justin could really surprise us. But of course, the overall probability of success isn’t particularly high.

The current betting odds from the bookmakers are a solid 5:1 in favor of Ilia Topuria. And if he ultimately loses this match, would that be considered the single greatest disappointment of this entire season?

I definitely think so. You know, that was really well said in terms of Justin’s incredible ability to constantly surprise people in the octagon. For example, if we take a moment to remember his legendary fight against Tony Ferguson—Tony is someone I truly admire as a world-class athlete, he’s just a very cool and unique character in the sport. And when there was... the fight against Tony Ferguson, it was the same thing. The bookmakers didn’t give Justin any chance at all. And he went out there and did what he did. He just, let’s put it this way, stunned him. In general, he took control of the whole fight and didn’t leave Tony any chance, yes. Although, in that fight, Tony also managed to stun him. There was also a pretty nasty knockdown there. Yeah. But he held on and turned the situation in his favor. That’s why, let’s say, you can never count anyone out. It’s just that, let’s say, there’s a fight on paper. That's the theory. In practice, things can turn out completely differently. On paper, Topuria is the clear favorite. But again, I'll repeat, that's only on paper. That is, up until the moment the fighters step into the cage. The moment they step inside the cage, the entire situation could flip upside down. I don't know, maybe Topuria just doesn't get enough sleep or comes in with a bad mood. Really anything can happen, so let's say the fight will show us the truth.

Alex Pereira versus Ciryl Gane. What do you honestly think about this situation? If, for example, Alex Pereira truly dreamed of making combat sports history and winning a third world title belt, don't you feel like his move to the heavyweight division came a bit too late in his career, almost as if his absolute best physical form was actually a year or so ago?

Well, it's actually quite difficult to say for certain. After all, he is already thirty-eight years of age, but on the other hand, for a heavyweight fighter, that's not necessarily what most people would consider an advanced age. For me, for example, I'm actually much more interested in a slightly different story—how Pereira will manage to adapt to the additional weight and the change in his overall speed. Because there are well-known examples of successful transitions from light heavyweight to heavyweight, but there are also stories that went the other way, which were later accompanied by serious injuries. As we know, a fighter gains a lot of weight in kilograms, and this is connected to changes in metabolism and body weight, The brain also has to get used to a different mass, to a slightly different dynamic. And here it’s particularly interesting to see how Pereira will look. Will he look just as impressive as Jon Jones did against Ciryl Gane? Of course, Cormier once moved back up to the heavyweight division, and for him there weren’t any particular problems. Or will he still continue to face problems when facing a natural, elite heavyweight like Ciryl Gane? That’s probably the main intrigue here. And that is most likely the reason why, well, at least on paper, this appears to be the most competitive fight that we have on the entire card.

I think the upcoming fight will definitely be very interesting to watch. There’s certainly much more intrigue here than in the previous matchup between Ciryl Gane and Jon Jones, because, well, again, let’s take a moment to remember exactly who Jon Jones is—he’s a true living legend and currently the number one pound-for-pound in this sport. I think that... Jon could easily dictate the terms of the fight in almost any direction he wanted because he had such a clear, dominant advantage in his wrestling. Everyone remembers exactly how that fight went down in the end. Jones didn’t really engage in striking exchanges. He forcefully took him to the ground and choked him out within the defensive minutes. Jon really had no problems at all in his matches. However, when we look at Alex, it is a bit of a different situation. As we are all well aware, Alex is not a traditional wrestler by trade. Instead, he is a former Glory champion and a world-class kickboxer making his way in MMA. It is quite unlikely that he will wrestle. Most likely, we'll see a striking battle. But what can I say? It’s going to be a truly classic matchup. Incredible raw physical power is on Alex Pereira’s side, while technical, fast, and skillful precision is on the side of Ciryl Gane. So Ciryl is a very technical and fluid fighter, while Alex is a devastating powerhouse. He’s a bit, I would say... naturally awkward, but at the same time, this awkwardness is actually his advantage. Even with his awkward punches, when he lands, people just crumble. If we look at his fights, he doesn’t always land technically, but just by landing, he shakes people up and they go down. Some people are just born with a natural gift for power—someone simply has dynamite in their hands; they land a hit and people just go down. And, accordingly, Alex has shown consistently that he possesses that same devastating power. He can land even against super-fast fighters, for example, Adesanya, whom he also knocked out closer to the end of the fight. This shows that Alex remains a constant and lethal threat throughout the entire fight, spanning across all 5 rounds. He can catch you at any moment in any round; he just needs to land 1 precise, powerful shot, and his opponent will simply fall completely unconscious right where they stand. As someone who represents the discipline of technical boxing, I truly love and appreciate watching the intricate technical side of how these fighters compete. I'll be rooting for Ciryl Gane. But I have a lot of respect for Pereira as well. This is exactly the kind of matchup I would love to see. A clash of raw physical power versus technique. Let's see which of these contenders will actually come out on top in the end this time.

Well, friends, I have a question to wrap up this segment. Something to think about: why aren't there any women on the card?

I don't think it has anything to do with sexism. A truly big, significant women's fight that could have been put on this card would most likely have been Valentina Shevchenko, possibly in an entirely different weight class that's not very familiar to her. It could have been Kayla Harrison. But as things actually turned out, as far as I know, both of them are currently unavailable at this time. As far as I remember, Valya was offered a fight on this card, but she couldn't take part. Kayla is actually recovering from surgery. So they probably decided not to include a women's fight just for the sake of having one. They decided to skip it altogether because they simply couldn't find such a major star. And we all know that there are some very serious problems with finding female stars, both on a global scale and specifically within the UFC.

That makes a lot of sense, and it's very reassuring. So there's no hidden agenda here.

Yeah, it is not necessarily just a matter of sexism or chauvinism. It is more just that, really, from a broad media and commercial perspective, women's fights still lack that same level of consistent mainstream visibility. don't sell as well as men's fights. That is simply the way the professional fighting industry works in this day and age. If we take a moment to look at the detailed statistics for tournament sales, pay-per-view buys, and everything else involved in the business, the specific events where women's fights were featured as the main event unfortunately did not sell as well as, for example, those nights when there was a major UFC superstar headlining the card, like Conor McGregor and so on. So, once again, if you just take an objective look at the actual numbers, we clearly see that the men's fights consistently sell significantly better. It's a special event, at the White House, there should be a lot of pay-per-view sales, and that's why, most likely, we won't see any women's fights. And I also agree about Valentina Shevchenko... She would most certainly be worthy of fighting on this upcoming card. But even Valentina Shevchenko can't make up for everything, yes, and we understand that. And, well, she also needs an opponent, meaning the fight itself has to be marketable and interesting, right? So, maybe one fighter wasn't available, the other couldn't make it. And that's why, let's say, they couldn't find a worthy female star.

Of course, I certainly agree with the notion that they sell much worse, unless we are talking about the major comeback of Ronda Rousey against the legendary Gina Carano. That was, of course, awesome, even though it ended very quickly. But, you have to admit, there was a lot of hype around it.

Many grown people practically felt like kids again while watching that fight.

Look, well, let's put it this way I'm going to predict that Justin Gaethje will win by knockout in the third round.

Cool! That's unexpected. Alright. Heavyweight division. Alex Pereira versus Ciryl Gane. Again, who will win, in which round, and by what method? Andrey.

So, well, here, if we, let's put it this way, if we take a closer look and analyze the whole fight, if Ciryl Gane wins, then I think it will go the full distance of the fight, meaning it will be a total on rounds, so the fight will go all five rounds. Well, let's put it this way, in my honest opinion, if Pereira doesn't manage to knock him out, then I think Cyril is quite capable of beating him on points. But if Pereira gets his message across... side and left, then I think that the fight can end in absolutely any round with a knockout. Because, well, as I said, Pereira is the kind of guy who can hit, he can hit hard for all five rounds. And the only question is when he'll land his punch. That is, he can knock out his opponent in the first, second, third, or fourth round. and in the fifth—absolutely any round. Here, everything depends, let's say, on a bit of luck. I think Pereira can knock out his opponent in absolutely any round, while Ciryl Gane most likely won't finish this fight by knockout. So I think if Ciryl Gane wins, he'll win by decision, but if Pereira wins, it'll be by knockout. That is pretty much how I see things all playing out in my mind.

And what percentage would you give to each fighter's chances of winning? thirty to forty, fifty to fifty?

I'd say the score is 10 to 40 in favor of Alex right now.

But I'm going to bet on a Pereira knockout in the very first round. After all, this is the heavyweight division, a massive title fight. And you always want these heavyweights to finish early and not go the full five rounds. There's no need for them to do that. We want a knockout. And here I absolutely agree with Andrey: if there is a knockout, most likely it will be Pereira's knockout. So, the first round is for Shama. Don't worry, everything will be just fine.

Alright, friends, thank you very much. With that, we conclude our video discussion. Joining me were sports journalist and commentator Yan Baranchuk, and MMA Series fighter Andrey Vasilenko. See you next week.